By Paul Einzig
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Extra info for Foreign Exchange Crises: An Essay in Economic Pathology
The exchanges of the exporting country and of the importing country may not be affected by such transactions for years. As we shall see in Chapter 10, even in respect of goods sold against short-term credit the time at which the exchanges are affected depends on whether the transaction is covered by a spot or a short or long forward operation, whether it is financed by banks in the exporting or importing country or in a third country, and whether it is financed in terms of the exporters' currency or the importers' currency or some third currency.
It is true, even this balance is bound to be offset in some way or other, unless debtors default on their liabilities. According to a conception that was fashionable in the early years after the first World War, the balance of payments is bound to balance and therefore it cannot affect the exchange rate. But it is the process by which the balance of IMPORT SURPLUS CRISES 23 payments balances that is liable to affect exchange rates. If a country has a large import surplus the depreciation of its exchange caused by it may attract buyers who are willing to hold balances or investments in terms of its currency.
Those arguing in favour offree export and unhampered overexport of capital do so in part on the basis FOREIGN EXCHANGE CRISES of the advantages they hope to derive from this growing internationalisation- division of labour, acquisition of each other's knowhow, etc. What they overlook is that if they claim that British overseas investments are a second line of defence for sterling, they have to admit that foreign investments in Britain correspondingly weaken that defence. They cannot have it both ways.